Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6422…74e7 politics 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%3W / 26L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$5
crypto 22% −$1
sports 22% −$1
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
all 29 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$580) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses3 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage92d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $152 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $297 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $148 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $74 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $149 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $149 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $225 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $230 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $151 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $151 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $75 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $152 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $156 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $78 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $157 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $661 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $79 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 05 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $580 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 31 $580 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 30 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $581 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 6d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 6d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 14d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 14d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $73 18d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 18d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 20d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 20d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $75 21d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 21d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $75 23d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 23d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $75 25d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 25d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $75 26d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 26d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 27d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 27d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $75 30d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 30d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 31d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 31d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $75 33d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 33d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $75 34d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 34d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 40d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.96 · official $73.96 (match) · 174 history records