Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

64 0x6421…d815 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$82 (+14%) realized +$304 · open −$222

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +96% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +64% what you keep after slip

Net edge+64%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown74%max

Avg bet$75per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)+77.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+96.1%	+77.4%	25%	25%	+80.9%
≤30d	4	+96.1%	+77.4%	25%	25%	+80.9%
≤90d	4	+96.1%	+77.4%	25%	25%	+80.9%
all	4	+96.1%	+77.4%	25%	25%	+80.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+77.4%	25%	+80.9%
10%	+60.4%	25%	+63.6%
15%	+44.9%	25%	+47.8%
20%	+30.7%	25%	+33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +100% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +96% · $-wt +100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$141 vs −$20 · ×7.03 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$280

Realized+$304

Unrealized−$222

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions4

Markets (closed)4 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$75

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown74%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	11¢	8¢	$194	$127	−$67 (-34%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$100	$102	+$2 (+2%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BetBoom Team	20¢	0¢	$158	$0	−$158 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia?	Jun 18	$21	+$141	+684%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$41	−$40	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$102	14m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	8¢	$103	14m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa?	BUY Yes	5¢	$51	15m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$96	51m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY BetBoom Team	20¢	$162	1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia?	SELL Yes	81¢	$161	12h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia?	BUY Yes	10¢	$21	15h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	32¢	$41	16h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.14 · official $278.62 (match) · 10 history records