Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:27:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6420…0f4b sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-3%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$74
other 36% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -26.5% -33.5% 50% 38% -9.9%
≤30d 8 -26.5% -33.5% 50% 38% -9.9%
≤90d 8 -26.5% -33.5% 50% 38% -9.9%
all 8 -26.5% -33.5% 50% 38% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 38% -9.9%
10% -39.9% 38% -18.6%
15% -45.7% 25% -26.4%
20% -51.0% 25% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$45 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage7d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $74 +$57 +76%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $38 −$38 -98%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $59 −$59 -100%
Spread: France (-5.5) Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $127 +$37 +29%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $95 +$69 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $150 +$14 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 30¢ $38 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $74 5h
Spread: France (-5.5) BUY France 10¢ $38 7d
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY France 20¢ $25 7d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $44 7d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $72 7d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $96 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $113 7d
Spread: France (-5.5) BUY France 10¢ $12 7d
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY France 20¢ $8 7d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $14 7d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $23 7d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $31 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $36 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records