Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:01:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
64 0x641d…37d9 crypto 446 markets active 1h ago coverage 704d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$726 (-1%) realized −$726 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate75%334W / 112L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$31
14 days−$240
30 days−$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$1,346
sports 4% −$68
world 3% +$207
other 3% +$41
politics 1% +$65
economics 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 35 -7.3% -16.1% 89% 6% -14.6%
≤90d 145 -2.9% -12.1% 86% 19% -9.1%
all 446 -3.9% -13.1% 75% 27% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 27% -10.6%
10% -21.4% 21% -19.2%
15% -29.0% 17% -27.0%
20% -35.9% 14% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$120 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

704d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$726
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses334 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)446 / 446
History coverage704d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 446 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $123 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $122 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $121 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $119 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $116 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $112 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $112 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $112 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $111 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $111 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $110 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $107 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $102 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $102 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $98 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 08 $205 −$174 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 08 $102 −$97 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 07 $150 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 06 $151 +$14 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $150 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 06 $150 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $151 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $328 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 06 $301 +$17 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 06 $308 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $161 −$161 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 05 $268 +$41 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 05 $267 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 05 $264 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 27 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 22 $162 −$162 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 22 $179 −$179 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 22 $154 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 22 $126 +$27 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 19 $34 +$11 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 19 $25 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 19 $13 +$12 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 19 $63 −$50 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 19 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 14 $160 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 14 $158 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 14 $149 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 14 $146 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 14 $137 +$10 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $121 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $119 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $116 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $112 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $112 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $112 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $111 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $111 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $110 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $107 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $103 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $102 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $102 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $99 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $98 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $30 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $205 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $6 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $150 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $151 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $150 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $150 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $151 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $177 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $151 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1001 history records