Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:51:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x641a…90ac crypto 281 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,083 (-4%) realized −$1,030 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%99W / 179L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$1,221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$2,306
sports 1% −$12
other 0% −$49
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -5.2% -14.2% 0% 0% -14.2%
≤30d 119 +0.2% -9.3% 40% 29% -14.1%
≤90d 278 -16.2% -24.1% 36% 27% -17.0%
all 278 -16.2% -24.1% 36% 27% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 27% -17.0%
10% -31.4% 21% -25.0%
15% -38.0% 17% -32.2%
20% -44.1% 14% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$33 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized−$1,030
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses99 / 179
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)278 / 281
History coverage83d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 278 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Under 62¢ 91¢ $143 $211 +$68 (+48%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 9¢ $94 $22 −$72 (-77%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 −$3 -5%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 −$3 -5%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 29 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 29 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 29 $8 −$6 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 29 $4 +$7 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 29 $2 +$2 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 29 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 29 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 29 $17 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 29 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 29 $16 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 23 $910 −$910 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 23 $350 −$117 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 23 $172 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 23 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 23 $845 +$200 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 23 $763 −$433 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 23 $73 +$43 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 23 $476 +$208 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 23 $133 +$156 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 23 $906 −$36 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 23 $917 −$240 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 23 $781 +$138 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 23 $1,080 −$114 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 23 $1,112 +$126 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 23 $448 −$29 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 23 $84 −$9 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 23 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 23 $237 −$60 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 23 $58 +$25 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 23 $43 +$14 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 23 $313 −$38 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 23 $163 +$35 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 23 $956 −$31 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 23 $145 +$23 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 23 $816 +$313 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 23 $839 −$367 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 23 $219 +$32 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 23 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 23 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 23 $56 −$13 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 23 $52 −$30 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 23 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 23 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 23 $136 +$22 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 62¢ $144 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $48 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $48 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $48 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $44 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $9 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.29 · official $233.29 (match) · 1686 history records