Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:57:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x641a…575f
crypto · 875 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$416 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$418 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$418
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses621 / 253
Open positions1
Markets (closed)874 / 875
History coverage100d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 874 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 68¢ 92¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+35%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $22 +$7 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$2 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$1 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$1 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $24 −$1 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 01 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 01 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 06 $14 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 06 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 06 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 06 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 06 $13 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 06 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 06 $13 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 06 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 06 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 06 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$416
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -3.7% -12.9% 36% 3% -9.4%
≤30d 36 -3.7% -12.9% 36% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 442 -3.0% -12.3% 63% 5% -10.9%
all 874 -1.9% -11.3% 71% 7% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 7% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 1% -19.0%
15% -27.5% 1% -26.8%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.58 · official $4.38 (match) · 3500 history records