Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
64 0x6419…7d1d crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+8%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$22
crypto 16% −$7
finance 9% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 50% +15.7%
≤30d 4 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 50% +15.7%
≤90d 13 -33.2% -39.6% 38% 31% -5.8%
all 13 -33.2% -39.6% 38% 31% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.6% 31% -5.8%
10% -45.3% 23% -14.8%
15% -50.6% 15% -23.1%
20% -55.5% 0% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage80d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $29 +$7 +26%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -37%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $40 +$17 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 29 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 29 $2 $0 +8%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 29 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 28 $3 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $36 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 19h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 19h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 39h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 40h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 14¢ $31 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 11¢ $26 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 5¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 78d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 79d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 79d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $3 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records