Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x6418…730c
world · 47 markets active 3h ago
2.0score
+$49,434 +30%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$45,005 · open +$2,724
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12,212
Realized+$45,005
Unrealized+$2,724
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage156d
Avg bet$3,513
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 2 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,337
7 days−$9,345
14 days−$17,857
30 days+$40,133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 29¢ 40¢ $7,671 $10,869 +$3,198 (+42%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 33¢ 24¢ $1,817 $1,343 −$474 (-26%)
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? No 1¢ 0¢ $2,090 $0 −$2,090 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? No 18¢ 0¢ $5,015 $0 −$5,015 (-100%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $758 $0 −$758 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? No 0¢ 0¢ $3,000 $0 −$3,000 (-100%)
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8? No 1¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? No 40¢ 0¢ $5,068 $0 −$5,068 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? No 3¢ 0¢ $301 $0 −$301 (-100%)
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 12? No 1¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $1,080 −$665 -62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $2,100 −$978 -47%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $1,736 −$1,375 -79%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $1,840 −$1,516 -82%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $1,998 −$1,711 -86%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $207 −$161 -78%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 11 $1,000 −$184 -18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $758 −$758 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $1,377 +$51 +4%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 10 $509 −$40 -8%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $80 −$80 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $12,156 −$9,266 -76%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1,747 +$738 +42%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $7,284 +$6,163 +85%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 07 $22,557 +$1,964 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $2,301 −$301 -13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1,325 −$594 -45%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $12,180 −$626 -5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $3,097 −$3,097 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $1,045 +$228 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $4,474 +$1,948 +44%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 03 $7 +$4 +62%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $2,091 −$2,090 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 31 $2,765 −$2,765 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $1,777 +$260 +15%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 29 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 26 $1,181 +$3,074 +260%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 26 $1,395 +$4,575 +328%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 25 $1,599 +$287 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $2,345 +$50,055 +2134%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 07 $1,928 −$529 -27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 02 $4,833 +$2,479 +51%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $5,015 −$5,015 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 26 $5,068 −$5,068 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $3,000 +$1,104 +37%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $3,000 +$4,829 +161%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $1,006 +$802 +80%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $1,010 +$896 +89%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $4,381 +$3,251 +74%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $9,162 +$4,129 +45%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 01 $3,906 −$884 -23%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 24 $1,506 −$695 -46%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 24 $995 +$43 +4%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 23 $2,214 −$470 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 96% +$53,043
crypto 2% −$3,097
other 1% −$2,178
tech 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 24¢ $2,969 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 24¢ $15 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 24¢ $32 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 24¢ $0 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 24¢ $104 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 14h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $103 14h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $50 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $105 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $19 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $264 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $25 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $172 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $990 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $1,551 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $941 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $68 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 12¢ $63 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 12¢ $118 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $1,000 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $2,000 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -45.8% -51.0% 21% 11% -9.6%
≤30d 31 +47.7% +33.6% 39% 32% +41.0%
≤90d 37 +40.5% +27.2% 41% 35% +28.2%
all 45 +37.8% +24.7% 44% 38% +26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.7% 38% +26.1%
10% ← realistic here +12.8% 31% +14.0%
15% +1.9% 31% +3.0%
20% -8.1% 22% -7.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,211.85 · official $12,211.85 (match) · 1325 history records