Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
64 0x640f…fe1d crypto 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$118 (+5%) realized +$194 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%16W / 48L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$33
30 days+$330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$110
world 4% +$133
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 23 +26.4% +14.3% 17% 17% +23.8%
≤90d 41 -8.7% -17.4% 20% 17% +9.0%
all 64 -11.7% -20.1% 25% 23% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 23% -5.4%
10% -27.8% 19% -14.5%
15% -34.8% 17% -22.8%
20% -41.2% 17% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$31 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$194
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses16 / 48
Open positions3
Markets (closed)64 / 67
History coverage131d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? Yes 64¢ 40¢ $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 19? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $35 $24 −$11 (-31%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? No 21¢ 10¢ $50 $23 −$27 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $32 −$27 -86%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 7? Jun 07 $32 −$23 -74%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $37 −$24 -65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $37 −$15 -40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $42 −$40 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $53 +$197 +374%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $52 −$50 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $53 −$50 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $60 −$56 -94%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? Jun 04 $116 −$110 -94%
Will Solana dip to $50 June 1-7? Jun 04 $128 −$120 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 3? Jun 04 $53 +$183 +347%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $32 +$393 +1229%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $53 +$224 +423%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $27 −$25 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $21 −$14 -68%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? Jun 03 $12 −$11 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 02 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? May 05 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? May 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $78 +$79 +101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29? Apr 28 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 24 $10 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 24 $100 +$133 +133%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 22? Apr 21 $10 −$9 -93%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 on April 21? Apr 21 $30 −$28 -95%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 on April 21? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $30 −$28 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 13? Apr 12 $50 −$48 -96%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 10? Apr 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 6? Apr 05 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 04 $10 −$9 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 20? Mar 25 $50 +$100 +200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 20? Mar 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on March 20? Mar 20 $50 −$9 -19%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 16? Mar 20 $30 +$48 +161%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on March 17? Mar 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 1? Mar 01 $100 +$31 +31%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 64¢ $103 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 21¢ $53 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 11d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 7? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 7? SELL Yes 8¢ $13 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 15¢ $22 11d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 7? BUY Yes 19¢ $32 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 6¢ $32 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 21¢ $37 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 22¢ $37 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 12¢ $42 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 31¢ $52 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 25¢ $53 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? BUY No 6¢ $6 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? BUY No 20¢ $53 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? BUY No 4¢ $53 14d
Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? BUY Yes 16¢ $79 14d
Will Solana dip to $50 June 1-7? BUY Yes 4¢ $75 14d
Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? BUY Yes 16¢ $37 14d
Will Solana dip to $50 June 1-7? BUY Yes 4¢ $27 14d
Will Solana dip to $50 June 1-7? BUY Yes 4¢ $27 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 3? SELL Yes 99¢ $236 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 3? SELL Yes 99¢ $247 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 3? SELL Yes 99¢ $178 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 3? SELL Yes 99¢ $277 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 18¢ $53 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 7¢ $32 15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 3? BUY Yes 21¢ $53 15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 5¢ $27 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.86 · official $109.01 (match) · 107 history records