Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:09:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x640e…e904 sports 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,140 (-29%) realized −$1,057 · open −$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%14W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$278
7 days−$598
14 days−$803
30 days−$1,131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,248
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -54.9% -59.2% 20% 20% -65.7%
≤30d 34 -34.7% -41.0% 24% 24% -47.3%
≤90d 48 -29.4% -36.1% 29% 29% -40.1%
all 48 -29.4% -36.1% 29% 29% -40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.1% 29% -40.1%
10% -42.3% 29% -45.8%
15% -47.8% 29% -51.0%
20% -53.0% 27% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$68 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized−$1,057
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 34
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions4
Markets (closed)48 / 52
History coverage37d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 52¢ 52¢ $159 $157 −$2 (-1%)
Valorant: X-CAST vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season DRX Academy 53¢ 52¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Paper Rex 47¢ 46¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage SaD Esports 45¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: T1 Academy vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $81 −$13 -16%
Map Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs DRX Academy (+1.5) Jun 18 $81 −$80 -98%
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 18 $162 −$160 -99%
Map Handicap: ART (-1.5) vs X-CAST (+1.5) Jun 18 $82 −$80 -98%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $81 +$75 +92%
Valorant: STREAMER ARENA vs FUSION (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Re Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg Jun 17 $81 +$61 +75%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $122 −$120 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $82 −$80 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $121 −$120 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $81 −$80 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South A Jun 08 $81 +$40 +50%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $81 −$80 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $81 −$80 -99%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 05 $81 +$55 +67%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 04 $81 −$80 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $81 +$64 +79%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 02 $81 −$7 -9%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 02 $81 −$11 -13%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $81 −$80 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $81 −$80 -99%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qualif May 30 $41 +$77 +188%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag May 29 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 29 $61 −$60 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas May 29 $41 +$67 +165%
LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 27 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 26 $82 +$361 +440%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 26 $61 −$59 -98%
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs May 26 $61 −$60 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 22 $81 −$80 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO5) - Circuit May 20 $162 −$160 -99%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 20 $81 −$80 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $61 +$93 +152%
LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 17 $21 −$20 -98%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 15 $81 −$80 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 15 $28 +$22 +76%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $82 −$80 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage May 14 $81 −$80 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 14 $30 +$27 +90%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 14 $81 +$46 +57%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 13 $81 +$73 +89%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 13 $81 +$85 +105%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 47¢ $81 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 52¢ $38 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 52¢ $124 1h
Valorant: X-CAST vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY DRX Academy 53¢ $81 1h
Valorant: T1 Academy vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season SELL ARETE 33¢ $68 1h
Valorant: T1 Academy vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY ARETE 38¢ $81 2h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY SaD Esports 45¢ $81 8h
Map Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs DRX Academy (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 49¢ $81 24h
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY ARETE 65¢ $162 24h
Map Handicap: ART (-1.5) vs X-CAST (+1.5) BUY ARETE 37¢ $82 24h
Valorant: STREAMER ARENA vs FUSION (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Re BUY FUSION 56¢ $81 30h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 51¢ $81 30h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 57¢ $81 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $122 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $82 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $121 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $81 7d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY Fluxo W7M 47¢ $61 8d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 61¢ $81 10d
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South A BUY paiN Gaming 66¢ $81 10d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 57¢ $81 12d
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen BUY Winthrop University 56¢ $81 14d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 59¢ $81 14d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 55¢ $81 15d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $81 16d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 57¢ $81 16d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 42¢ $81 16d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $81 17d
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag BUY CCG Esports 28¢ $41 20d
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp Blue 23¢ $61 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.32 · official $316.32 (match) · 72 history records