Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x640b…d920
sports · 55 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$99 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$165 · open +$289
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,885
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$289
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses22 / 24
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions9
Markets (closed)46 / 55
History coverage2d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day91.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 9 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$165
14 days+$165
30 days+$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $2,166 $2,376 +$210 (+10%)
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $183 $297 +$114 (+62%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? No 60¢ 100¢ $117 $196 +$79 (+68%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 78¢ 94¢ $13 $15 +$3 (+21%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Curaçao leading at halftime? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-97%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 49¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $13 +$13 +93%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $150 +$106 +71%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $212 −$155 -73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $113 +$83 +73%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $186 +$40 +21%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $156 +$53 +34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $124 −$2 -1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 +$281 +1521%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $422 +$94 +22%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $129 +$68 +52%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 +$6 +62%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $26 +$8 +31%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $155 +$41 +26%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $100 −$80 -80%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $17 +$2 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $173 +$24 +14%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $179 +$17 +10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $97 +$85 +88%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $10 +$11 +117%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $83 +$18 +21%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $41 −$31 -74%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $42 −$19 -45%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $22 +$16 +74%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $7 +$2 +32%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $14 $0 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $122 +$2 +2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $68 −$48 -71%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $111 −$102 -92%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $43 −$20 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 62% +$692
sports 38% −$237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 47m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 58m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 5¢ $2 59m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 5¢ $8 59m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 59m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 88¢ $24 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 89¢ $85 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $178 1h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $9 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $38 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $70 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $7 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $1 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 78¢ $13 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $79 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $78 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $179 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $179 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $179 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $179 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $179 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $178 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $179 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +8.7% -1.6% 48% 41% -4.9%
≤30d 46 +8.7% -1.6% 48% 41% -4.9%
≤90d 46 +8.7% -1.6% 48% 41% -4.9%
all 46 +8.7% -1.6% 48% 41% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover91.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 41% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here -11.0% 33% -14.0%
15% -19.6% 22% -22.3%
20% -27.5% 22% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,884.75 · official $2,882.55 (match) · 257 history records