Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:43:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6404…2a20 sports 519 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5,780 (-20%) realized −$5,780 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%258W / 260L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$145est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 103d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$136
sports 38% −$2,025
crypto 2% −$464
weather 1% −$251
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -52.7% -57.2% 17% 17% +84.1%
≤30d 38 -28.5% -35.3% 37% 32% -14.2%
≤90d 427 -23.8% -31.0% 43% 37% -14.9%
all 518 -11.1% -19.6% 50% 43% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 43% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 32% -21.6%
15% -34.3% 27% -29.2%
20% -40.7% 20% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$37 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,780
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses258 / 260
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions0
Markets (closed)518 / 519
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 518 Trades
no open positions (56 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1,729 +$2,645 +153%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $294 −$204 -69%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $200 −$154 -77%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3,614 +$533 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $201 +$125 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,821 −$1,481 -81%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$99 +192%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $199 −$197 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$132 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$379 +75%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $354 −$350 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $500 +$26 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $558 −$464 -83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$95 +94%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,283 +$712 +56%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $607 +$16 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,264 −$1,013 -45%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,960 −$1,890 -96%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,815 −$691 -38%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $284 −$280 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $609 +$628 +103%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $405 −$293 -72%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $240 +$171 +71%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $267 −$253 -95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $65 −$2 -3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $92 −$1 -1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $118 +$81 +68%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $133 +$55 +41%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 6? Apr 06 $252 −$251 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 05 $1 +$1 +67%
Raptors vs. Grizzlies Apr 05 $2 $0 +13%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-04-03? Apr 05 $2 $0 +18%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-04-03? Apr 05 $2 +$1 +76%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 05 $3 $0 +11%
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 05 $3 +$1 +35%
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 231.5 Apr 05 $7 −$2 -35%
Spread: Raptors (-13.5) Apr 05 $3 +$2 +79%
Flyers vs. Islanders Apr 05 $4 +$1 +13%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals Apr 05 $5 $0 +2%
Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5 Apr 05 $7 −$2 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $203 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 2h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 45h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 45h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 45h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $85 45h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $92 45h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $90 45h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 45h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 45h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 45h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $51 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $101 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 19¢ $27 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records