Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:58:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6404…edbd other 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$41 (-1%) realized −$15 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%54W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days−$463
14 days−$384
30 days−$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$119
other 30% +$128
sports 24% −$57
politics 2% −$4
crypto 2% −$21
finance 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -55.4% -59.6% 20% 20% -43.4%
≤30d 31 +9.4% -1.0% 29% 29% -27.3%
≤90d 74 -9.9% -18.5% 27% 26% -29.0%
all 132 +10.5% -0.0% 41% 36% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.0% 36% -9.5%
10% -9.6% 30% -18.2%
15% -18.3% 27% -26.1%
20% -26.3% 20% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$27 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses54 / 78
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)132 / 135
History coverage152d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 64¢ 48¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$64 +63%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$34 -56%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$16 +31%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 +$95 +233%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Jun 14 $150 −$28 -18%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $212 −$202 -95%
Will Leeds be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 14 $100 −$52 -52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$20 -78%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$78 +1519%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$29 +142%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$27 -54%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $100 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 25 $50 +$10 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $100 +$48 +48%
Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA May 16 $51 +$65 +128%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 15 $100 +$40 +40%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 04 $51 +$18 +35%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $80 +$55 +69%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $30 +$71 +237%
Military action against Iran ends on April 28, 2026? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? Apr 12 $10 +$47 +474%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 1 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $50 +$43 +86%
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Draw at halftime? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Apr 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-21? Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-21? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-15? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 20h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $165 32h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 42h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $83 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $25 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $66 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 6d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 25¢ $48 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $95 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $41 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.89 · official $173.89 (match) · 302 history records