Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:27:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
64 0x6403…0318 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$77 (+43%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +17.9% +6.7% 75% 75% +28.9%
≤30d 4 +17.9% +6.7% 75% 75% +28.9%
≤90d 4 +17.9% +6.7% 75% 75% +28.9%
all 4 +17.9% +6.7% 75% 75% +28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.7% 75% +28.9%
10% -3.5% 50% +16.6%
15% -12.9% 50% +5.3%
20% -21.4% 25% -5.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$19 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.1 per $1 lost it wins $5.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $30 +$6 +21%
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $51 +$56 +109%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $81 +$33 +41%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $19 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $30 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $114 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $19 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $81 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records