Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6402…3b59 other 248 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 236L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$25
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$42
sports 23% −$22
politics 7% −$6
economics 6% −$5
culture 6% −$7
crypto 4% −$2
world 3% −$2
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 62 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage139d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $324 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $262 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $892 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $296 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $953 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $300 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $136 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $128 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $404 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $656 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $386 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $141 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $473 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $283 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $414 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $546 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $68 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $146 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $176 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 04 $373 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $301 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $250 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $520 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $223 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $144 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $223 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $280 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $62 2m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 5h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 8h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 10h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 14h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 16h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 17h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 19h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 22h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 23h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 26h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 27h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 29h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 31h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 32h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 33h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 38h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 39h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $63 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $14 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.47 · official $61.47 (match) · 1390 history records