Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:04:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63fd…0047 weather 86 markets active 7h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$36 (-5%) realized −$39 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 13 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 13 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$8 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 86
History coverage22d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? No 78¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? No 78¢ 99¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? No 77¢ 76¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on May 29? May 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 29? May 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 28? May 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on May 29? May 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 29? May 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 29? May 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 29? May 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 29? May 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on May 28? May 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 28? May 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 28? May 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 28? May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 28? May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 78¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 78¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 74¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $7 38h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 52¢ $6 42h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $7 45h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $7 47h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $7 47h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 74¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 74¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY No 75¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY No 73¢ $20 6d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $20 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 77¢ $19 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? BUY No 74¢ $21 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 60¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 60¢ $16 7d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 69¢ $11 7d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 72¢ $9 7d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 9? BUY No 67¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 9? BUY No 78¢ $9 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.72 · official $22.72 (match) · 97 history records