Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
63 0x63fb…70a2 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,067 (-7%) realized −$336 · open −$731
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$959per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$6,962now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days−$322
14 days−$516
30 days−$516
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$737
crypto 45% −$730
sports 7% +$344
finance 1% −$99
economics 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -21.5% -29.0% 42% 42% -14.1%
≤30d 14 -18.5% -26.3% 43% 43% -15.8%
≤90d 14 -18.5% -26.3% 43% 43% -15.8%
all 14 -18.5% -26.3% 43% 43% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 43% -15.8%
10% -33.4% 43% -23.8%
15% -39.8% 36% -31.2%
20% -45.7% 14% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$283 vs −$277 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$6,962
Realized−$336
Unrealized−$731
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage198d
Avg bet$959
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 60¢ $6,692 $5,961 −$730 (-11%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $1,001 $1,000 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,082 −$64 -6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $303 +$151 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $389 +$194 +50%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,008 +$344 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $535 −$535 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $822 +$469 +57%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $466 +$355 +76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $579 −$113 -20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $392 +$187 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $773 −$381 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,016 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 79¢ $1,018 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,082 28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $303 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,005 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $389 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1,008 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $535 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $822 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $466 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $466 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $579 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $392 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $391 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $773 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,498 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $2,276 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,048 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,025 19d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 6¢ $99 35d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 198d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 198d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,961.53 · official $6,961.73 (match) · 52 history records