Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x63f4…2c55
crypto · 60 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
−$247 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$648 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$648
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses41 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage351d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 0 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$170
14 days−$170
30 days−$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? No 1¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $183 +$28 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $195 +$116 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $317 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $113 +$83 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $378 −$201 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $214 +$78 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $182 +$28 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $609 −$270 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $384 +$67 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $285 +$101 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $242 +$46 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $200 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $162 +$38 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $98 +$64 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $993 −$814 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $844 +$63 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $756 +$88 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $637 +$121 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $361 +$270 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $206 +$158 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $202 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $235 −$37 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $221 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $178 +$47 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $302 −$125 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $234 +$69 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $149 +$59 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$19 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $153 −$17 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $47 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$20 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$20 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $151 +$23 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$8 +16%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% −$172
world 4% −$500
sports 1% +$2
tech 0% −$2
other 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $195 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $113 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $113 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $203 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $113 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $91 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $97 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $92 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $90 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $85 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $288 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $214 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $182 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $152 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $156 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $457 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $384 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $285 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $242 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $162 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $910 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $844 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $756 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $637 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $361 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +8.9% -1.4% 74% 63% -11.0%
≤30d 56 +8.6% -1.7% 71% 61% -11.0%
≤90d 56 +8.6% -1.7% 71% 61% -11.0%
all 60 +7.4% -2.8% 68% 58% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 58% -14.8%
10% -12.1% 37% -22.9%
15% -20.6% 22% -30.4%
20% -28.4% 15% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records