Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:17:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

63 0x63f3…ebc0 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$107 (-4%) realized −$121 · open +$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -82% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -85% what you keep after slip

Net edge-85%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate17%1W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$249per market

Trades / day15.0pace

Fees−$26est.

Kalshi-fit70%portable

Net worth$514now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-83.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-81.8%	-83.6%	17%	0%	-72.9%
≤30d	6	-81.8%	-83.6%	17%	0%	-72.9%
≤90d	6	-81.8%	-83.6%	17%	0%	-72.9%
all	6	-81.8%	-83.6%	17%	0%	-72.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover15.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-83.6%	0%	-72.9%
10%	-85.1%	0%	-75.5%
15%	-86.6%	0%	-77.8%
20%	-87.9%	0%	-80.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -70% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -82% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$154 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.02 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$514

Realized−$121

Unrealized+$14

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses1 / 5

Est. fees paid−$26

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 10

History coverage1d

Avg bet$249

Trades / day15.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Over	53¢	55¢	$500	$514	+$14 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Jun 22	$213	−$200	-94%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5	Jun 22	$51	−$49	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Jun 22	$308	+$13	+4%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$506	−$499	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$106	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$106	1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	1¢	$2	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY	40¢	$509	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	SELL Down	69¢	$321	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$103	1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	21¢	$51	3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$506	11h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Fra	BUY	14¢	$72	11h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	53¢	$507	11h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Fra	BUY	8¢	$308	12h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $514.15 · official $1,014.15 · 15 history records