Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:13:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63f1…94c5 world 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%23W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$3
politics 20% $0
other 16% −$1
sports 15% −$9
economics 2% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.4% -11.7% 33% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 42% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 69 -1.8% -11.1% 30% 0% -9.6%
all 73 -4.4% -13.5% 32% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 0% -10.0%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses23 / 50
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage486d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 30¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $7 $0 +6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $9 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $52 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $72 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $34 −$3 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $56 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $37 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $34 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $82 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $37 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $55 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $119 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $100 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $35 +$3 +8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +6%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $72 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $35 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 20 $29 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 18 $4 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $65 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $31 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $64 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $32 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $210 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $62 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $64 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $72 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $78 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $93 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $115 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $8 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $1 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $7 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $23 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $32 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $35 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 46¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 46¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $33 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $30 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $27 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $33 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.04 · official $31.15 (match) · 325 history records