Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:51:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63ee…e796 world 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$28 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate40%44W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$37
sports 22% +$18
other 14% $0
economics 13% +$4
politics 7% −$12
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% +$1
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 24 +0.0% -9.5% 21% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 38 -0.2% -9.7% 26% 5% -9.9%
all 110 -0.9% -10.3% 40% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 6% -9.9%
10% -18.9% 4% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 4% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses44 / 66
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage470d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $21 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $139 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $84 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $73 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $73 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $67 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $94 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $139 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $716 −$1 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $43 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $79 +$2 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $218 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $175 +$5 +3%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +18%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 01 $1 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $71 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $132 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $157 −$4 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $140 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $90 −$25 -27%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $96 −$6 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $57 −$3 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $7 +$2 +38%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $253 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $873 +$4 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $169 −$5 -3%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $113 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $31 −$3 -8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $292 +$16 +6%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $647 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $3 −$1 -17%
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday? Jun 24 $1 $0 +3%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 24 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 08 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $3 $0 -14%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 03 $21 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $1 $0 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $66 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $71 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $71 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $67 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $22 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $44 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $66 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $73 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $73 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $66 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $66 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $5 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $16 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $52 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $73 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $73 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $74 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $6 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $61 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.36 · official $65.36 (match) · 395 history records