Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:14:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
63 0x63ec…3b76 sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,280 (-28%) realized −$1,375 · open +$95
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$695now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$324
7 days−$1,191
14 days−$1,216
30 days−$1,216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,269
finance 2% −$12
politics 1% +$59
world 0% +$28
crypto 0% +$3
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -6.6% -15.5% 45% 45% -39.4%
≤30d 23 -10.7% -19.2% 43% 43% -39.8%
≤90d 23 -10.7% -19.2% 43% 43% -39.8%
all 37 +7.4% -2.8% 46% 41% -38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 41% -38.7%
10% -12.1% 38% -44.6%
15% -20.6% 35% -50.0%
20% -28.4% 30% -54.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$116 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$695
Realized−$1,375
Unrealized+$95
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions6
Markets (closed)37 / 43
History coverage114d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 42¢ 92¢ $100 $218 +$118 (+118%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Texas Rangers 42¢ 45¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Seattle Mariners 36¢ 34¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Yes $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Cleveland Guardians 62¢ 54¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$58 +57%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$50 +49%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $102 +$131 +129%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$54 +53%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $505 −$500 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $305 +$426 +140%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 19 $304 −$300 -99%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $306 −$300 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 19 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 16 $244 −$241 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $101 +$63 +62%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 15 $101 −$21 -21%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$5 -5%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $101 −$5 -4%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$4 -4%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 14 $50 +$18 +36%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 +$30 +60%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
First Round Pool B: Mexico vs. Italy Mar 11 $114 −$114 -100%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Italy Mar 11 $50 −$50 -100%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Czechia Mar 10 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
First Round Pool D: Israel vs. Dominican Rep. Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 07 $30 +$61 +206%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will a candidate win outright in the Texas GOP Senate Primary? Mar 04 $30 +$4 +12%
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. Chinese Taipei Mar 02 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Mar 01 $1 +$3 +315%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 01 $2 $0 +23%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $5 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $5 +$28 +567%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 36¢ $102 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 42¢ $102 1h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 53¢ $101 1h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 62¢ $101 1h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 42¢ $102 1h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 65¢ $101 25h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 65¢ $101 25h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 63¢ $101 25h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ $505 25h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 43¢ $102 25h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 65¢ $101 25h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 66¢ $101 25h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $304 2d
1st 5 Innings Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 74¢ $101 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 29¢ $306 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 40¢ $305 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 41¢ $305 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes $104 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 62¢ $244 5d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Detroit Tigers 52¢ $80 6d
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) SELL Washington Nationals 65¢ $96 6d
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 67¢ $101 6d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 65¢ $101 6d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 36¢ $51 6d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 61¢ $101 6d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $305 6d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 54¢ $97 6d
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) SELL New York Mets 61¢ $97 6d
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 62¢ $101 6d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $695.22 · official $695.25 (match) · 77 history records