Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:08:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
63 0x63e6…ea35 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 891d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,991 (+53%) realized +$4,978 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$377per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$72
14 days+$72
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$505
politics 40% +$4,394
other 3% +$45
sports 3% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +24.4% +12.5% 62% 62% +14.2%
≤30d 13 +24.4% +12.5% 62% 62% +14.2%
≤90d 13 +24.4% +12.5% 62% 62% +14.2%
all 16 +21.6% +10.0% 62% 62% +40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.0% 62% +40.1%
10% -0.5% 56% +26.7%
15% -10.1% 56% +14.4%
20% -19.0% 56% +3.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$517 vs −$33 · ×15.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×25.85 per $1 lost it wins $25.85
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

891d coverage
Net worth$363
Realized+$4,978
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)16 / 25
History coverage891d
Avg bet$377
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 +$32 +105%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $31 +$44 +146%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$18 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$16 +158%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 12 $3,798 +$4,394 +116%
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Ko Wen-je win? Jan 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Hou Yu-ih win? Jan 14 $4,895 +$605 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $30 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 12h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $31 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $31 25h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 4d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 45¢ $2,998 678d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 50¢ $500 819d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 50¢ $300 819d
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Hou Yu-ih win? BUY No 89¢ $4,895 891d
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Ko Wen-je win? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 891d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $362.67 · official $362.67 (match) · 42 history records