Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:06:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63e5…53fc crypto 292 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$10 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%280W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$23
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$20
politics 6% −$17
finance 4% +$2
other 1% +$1
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 288 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 288 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.3%
all 288 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$13 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses280 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)288 / 292
History coverage11d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 99¢ 79¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $19 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $15 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.73 · official $75.73 (match) · 578 history records