Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:41:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63e4…58c5 world 33 markets active 3h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$1
other 30% $0
tech 3% $0
politics 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.6% -11.0% 20% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.7%
all 33 +0.3% -9.2% 39% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage470d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $18 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $48 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $61 +$2 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $36 −$3 -9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $66 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $62 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $63 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $91 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $29 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $8 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Dec 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Dec 09 $9 $0 +4%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 25 $9 $0 -2%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will George Simion win by over 18%? May 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $13 $0 -0%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Mar 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 26 $13 $0 +0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be 48.5% or higher on March 7? Mar 13 $13 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 2h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $18 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $18 12h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $4 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $14 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $18 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $29 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $31 41h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 87¢ $33 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $36 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $34 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $16 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $14 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $32 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $1 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $33 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $24 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $9 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $21 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $33 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records