Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:30:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
63 0x63dd…c279 crypto 1110 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 185d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,339 (-24%) realized −$9,345 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate62%685W / 423L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 186d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$371
crypto 26% −$371
finance 25% +$730
other 10% +$68
politics 3% −$439
tech 2% +$67
world 1% −$4
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +15.0% +4.1% 83% 67% +0.3%
≤30d 55 -10.3% -18.8% 53% 47% -30.0%
≤90d 222 +0.2% -9.4% 64% 49% -9.6%
all 1108 -0.3% -9.8% 62% 45% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 45% -10.3%
10% -18.4% 32% -18.8%
15% -26.3% 23% -26.7%
20% -33.5% 15% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$9,345
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses685 / 423
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1108 / 1110
History coverage186d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? No 63¢ 78¢ $26 $32 +$6 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Jun 30 $28 −$2 -6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $24 +$5 +21%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $8 $0 +5%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $7 +$1 +20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $23 +$4 +19%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 +$3 +16%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $36 +$14 +38%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $74 −$9 -12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $18 +$3 +15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $26 +$1 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $20 +$6 +32%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $193 −$40 -21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18? Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 13? Jun 14 $385 −$251 -65%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 8? Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 14 $35 −$13 -36%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? Jun 14 $28 −$17 -60%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 14 $46 −$33 -71%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 13 $4 +$7 +180%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$28 +56%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $151 −$9 -6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $71 −$1 -1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $7 −$4 -51%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $127 +$47 +37%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -51%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $77 +$11 +15%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $47 +$6 +14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $237 −$79 -33%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $21 +$6 +27%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $18 +$3 +14%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $10 +$8 +76%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $18 +$6 +32%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $17 +$5 +33%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $46 +$11 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $7 −$1 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 64¢ $13 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 63¢ $13 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 70¢ $26 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 73¢ $28 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 100¢ $29 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 82¢ $24 10h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 95¢ $8 29h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL No 100¢ $8 29h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 83¢ $7 32h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 100¢ $27 46h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 79¢ $11 47h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 89¢ $11 47h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 77¢ $20 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 72¢ $36 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 80¢ $29 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Up 54¢ $29 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 82¢ $45 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 26? SELL Down 99¢ $21 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 85¢ $18 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 70¢ $11 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? SELL Up 55¢ $11 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 70¢ $14 6d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 23? SELL Down 98¢ $26 6d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 85¢ $15 6d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 53¢ $5 7d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 45¢ $28 13d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 55¢ $28 13d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 61¢ $32 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.81 · official $31.81 (match) · 3500 history records