Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:55:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63db…41fe politics 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,474 (-1%) realized −$1,475 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$958per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$11
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$59
other 43% −$48
sports 5% −$1,401
economics 2% −$3
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 35 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 100 -2.4% -11.7% 11% 6% -11.0%
all 109 -2.2% -11.5% 10% 6% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 6% -10.8%
10% -20.0% 6% -19.4%
15% -27.7% 6% -27.2%
20% -34.8% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,295) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized−$1,475
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage94d
Avg bet$958
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $257 $258 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $261 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 23 $336 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $308 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $303 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $248 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $605 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,302 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,268 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $629 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,744 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $860 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 05 $758 −$1 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 05 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $855 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $781 −$1 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $66 +$61 +93%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $196 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $382 +$1 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $304 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $281 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $2,626 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $2,657 −$4 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw? May 25 $72 −$72 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $29 +$33 +114%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 May 20 $1,341 −$1,341 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 20 $32 +$21 +65%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $34 +$17 +50%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,239 −$2 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 05 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $1,239 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $1,151 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $1,289 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 01 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $261 1h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $261 3h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $336 18h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $336 19h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $308 22h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $308 26h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $303 43h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $303 45h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $247 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $248 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $365 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $366 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $575 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $576 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $627 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $627 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $604 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $605 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $550 8d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $551 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $518 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $519 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $514 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $515 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $257 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $750 13d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $751 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $628 14d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $629 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $648 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.68 · official $257.68 (match) · 294 history records