Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:31:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x63d9…954f
crypto · 859 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,265 -36%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,257 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$3
Realized−$1,257
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses306 / 624
Open positions4
Markets (closed)930 / 859
Avg bet$4
Trades / day762.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 930 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,395
7 days−$1,257
14 days−$1,257
30 days−$1,257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Down 20¢ 8¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-63%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Down 29¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 12¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-95%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$12 -109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$6 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? Jun 12 $5 −$16 -314%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 12 $6 −$26 -447%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$7 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$6 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 930 -28.4% -35.3% 33% 29% -35.2%
≤30d 930 -28.4% -35.3% 33% 29% -35.2%
≤90d 930 -28.4% -35.3% 33% 29% -35.2%
all 930 -28.4% -35.3% 33% 29% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover762.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.3% 29% -35.2%
10% ← realistic here -41.4% 24% -41.4%
15% -47.1% 20% -47.0%
20% -52.3% 15% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.61 · official $3.84 · 3500 history records