Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63d8…fd86 other 51 markets active 4d ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58 (-8%) realized −$35 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate75%24W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$38
14 days−$55
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$12
tech 21% −$31
world 20% −$41
politics 19% +$3
finance 4% +$6
crypto 3% +$2
sports 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.7% -11.9% 70% 60% -26.2%
≤30d 31 +0.5% -9.1% 74% 45% -19.0%
≤90d 32 +0.6% -9.0% 75% 44% -18.7%
all 32 +0.6% -9.0% 75% 44% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 44% -18.7%
10% -17.7% 16% -26.5%
15% -25.6% 9% -33.6%
20% -32.9% 3% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses24 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)32 / 51
History coverage35d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 80¢ 99¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 95¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 93¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Is Earth flat? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 93¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +8%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $103 −$40 -38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $10 +$3 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco Jun 05 $10 $0 +4%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +15%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $10 +$1 +7%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 −$2 -19%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 30 $10 +$4 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $10 +$2 +20%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the May 21 $10 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 6d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $10 6d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $64 6d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $103 6d
Is Earth flat? BUY No 98¢ $10 7d
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 7d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $10 7d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $20 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $20 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $30 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? BUY No 92¢ $20 7d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $10 7d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $10 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $20 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 86¢ $13 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 86¢ $15 8d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 100¢ $11 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 9d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 10d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $10 10d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 84¢ $10 10d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 95¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.10 · official $237.13 (match) · 121 history records