Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:48:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63d6…663b crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (143 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$120 (-6%) realized −$133 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day143.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$36
sports 9% −$66
other 3% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (143 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -6.8% -15.6% 64% 43% -14.6%
≤30d 14 -6.8% -15.6% 64% 43% -14.6%
≤90d 14 -6.8% -15.6% 64% 43% -14.6%
all 14 -6.8% -15.6% 64% 43% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover143.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 43% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 36% -22.8%
15% -31.1% 7% -30.3%
20% -37.8% 7% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$61 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day143.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 46¢ $57 $70 +$13 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET Jun 18 $90 $0 +0%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $45 +$15 +33%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $39 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $80 +$20 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $237 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $117 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $175 +$32 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $58 +$49 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $55 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $609 −$51 -8%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Felix Gill Jun 17 $92 −$90 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $12 43m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $8 44m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $39 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $17 1h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Rinky Hijikata 48¢ $48 1h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 38¢ $10 1h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 38¢ $28 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $87 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $76 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 98¢ $98 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 65¢ $192 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 55¢ $32 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 51¢ $14 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 51¢ $14 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 51¢ $14 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.75 · official $69.75 (match) · 172 history records