Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63d4…1b6b sports 32 markets active 5d ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$54 (-28%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$43
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$61
crypto 16% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-43.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -58.8% -62.7% 27% 27% -65.9%
≤30d 15 -58.8% -62.7% 27% 27% -65.9%
≤90d 22 -38.7% -44.6% 36% 36% -51.9%
all 32 -37.5% -43.5% 38% 38% -50.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.5% 38% -50.1%
10% -48.9% 31% -54.9%
15% -53.8% 28% -59.2%
20% -58.3% 22% -63.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage228d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $13 −$13 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $9 +$4 +45%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $13 −$5 -39%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 +$2 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $7 −$3 -43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $13 −$5 -39%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $21 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 25 $14 −$9 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 24 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 24 $2 +$3 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 17 $5 +$3 +51%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Fluxo (BO1) Nov 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Lynn Vision (BO1) Nov 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs M80 (BO1) Nov 24 $12 +$4 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy (BO5) Nov 01 $13 +$2 +13%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Legacy (BO3) Oct 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 28 $6 −$2 -29%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs B8 (BO3) Oct 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs paiN (BO3) Oct 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Real Betis vs. Atletico Madrid: Both Teams to Score Oct 27 $1 +$2 +136%
Counter-Strike: SAW vs NIP (BO3) Oct 27 $2 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $13 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Legacy 21¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 18¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $13 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 66¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 37¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 69¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 46¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 45¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 41¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 8¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 16¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL B8 46¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 31¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 33¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 99¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 61¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 17¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 9¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 26¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 25¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 41¢ $7 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 44¢ $8 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 45¢ $8 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 45¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records