Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:00:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
63 0x63d3…e629 crypto 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$781 (-2%) realized −$781 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%60W / 64L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days−$528
14 days−$2,146
30 days−$2,146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$1,158
sports 3% −$988
politics 1% +$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -34.0% -40.2% 40% 30% -33.4%
≤30d 123 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 47% -14.5%
≤90d 123 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 47% -14.5%
all 124 -7.2% -16.0% 48% 48% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 48% -14.1%
10% -24.1% 46% -22.3%
15% -31.4% 45% -29.8%
20% -38.1% 40% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$245 vs −$261 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$781
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses60 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 124
History coverage592d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $207 +$127 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $207 −$150 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$92 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $207 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $311 +$293 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $154 +$89 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $426 −$412 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $517 +$73 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $517 −$517 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $415 −$415 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $414 +$376 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $206 −$193 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $415 +$419 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $312 −$286 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$57 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $334 −$324 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $413 −$413 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $206 −$112 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $311 −$311 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $517 +$471 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $404 −$404 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $313 +$436 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $416 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $306 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $311 −$308 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $242 −$235 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $415 −$415 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $206 +$156 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $310 +$256 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $137 +$124 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $299 +$255 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $415 +$444 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $120 −$102 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $207 +$200 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $312 +$355 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $415 +$437 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $207 +$193 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $186 +$168 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $310 −$310 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $333 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $224 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $604 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $311 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $414 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $590 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $238 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $279 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $284 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $233 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $415 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $143 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $271 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $13 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $206 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $415 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $13 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 310 history records