Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:45:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x63d2…22dc sports 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$159 (+10%) realized +$159 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate67%106W / 52L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$156
7 days+$243
14 days+$234
30 days+$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$158
other 22% +$82
crypto 12% −$27
world 1% +$3
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +12.8% +2.1% 74% 65% +10.9%
≤30d 73 +9.9% -0.6% 71% 52% +6.4%
≤90d 158 +1.9% -7.8% 67% 49% +2.6%
all 158 +1.9% -7.8% 67% 49% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 49% +2.6%
10% -16.7% 37% -7.2%
15% -24.7% 24% -16.1%
20% -32.1% 18% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses106 / 52
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 160
History coverage47d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur Damir Dzumhur 80¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Sinja Kraus Jun 21 $35 +$5 +13%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $10 +$2 +18%
Set 2 Winner: Sierra vs Blinkova Jun 21 $10 +$9 +88%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 21 $1 $0 +26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 +$3 +42%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026- Jun 20 $9 +$6 +71%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 $0 -2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks Jun 20 $6 +$6 +93%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $10 +$5 +49%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $4 +$1 +14%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $12 +$3 +25%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Aleksandar Vu Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Veronika Er Jun 20 $2 $0 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $14 +$4 +26%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovi Jun 20 $11 +$3 +23%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson Jun 20 $40 +$1 +2%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall Jun 20 $20 +$12 +59%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 20 $66 +$26 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Hero JiuJing (BO5) - King Pro League Stage Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$42 +84%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $40 +$9 +21%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $29 +$11 +38%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $6 −$6 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $23 +$12 +53%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $18 +$5 +29%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $5 +$6 +114%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $90 +$23 +25%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 19 $19 −$19 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $89 +$28 +32%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Jun 19 $80 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $73 +$13 +17%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $64 +$8 +13%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $59 +$5 +8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $45 +$15 +32%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $29 +$16 +57%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $9 +$19 +206%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $4 +$12 +291%
Olympic Dcheira vs. HUS Agadir: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +8%
Valorant: Riddle vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 03 $7 −$7 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl Jun 03 $6 +$2 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur SELL Damir Dzumhur 100¢ $11 33m
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 80¢ $9 42m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Sinja Kraus SELL Sinja Kraus 99¢ $40 46m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 87¢ $35 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 100¢ $12 2h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 84¢ $10 2h
Set 2 Winner: Sierra vs Blinkova SELL Sierra 99¢ $19 3h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu SELL Irina-Camelia Begu 38¢ $1 3h
Set 2 Winner: Sierra vs Blinkova BUY Sierra 52¢ $10 3h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 29¢ $1 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 83¢ $21 15h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $22 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Emiliana Arango 51¢ $6 19h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag SELL Lilli Tagger 84¢ $11 21h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Christopher OConnell 94¢ $5 21h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 81¢ $4 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag SELL Lilli Tagger 69¢ $4 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 59¢ $15 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag BUY Lilli Tagger 52¢ $10 21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026- BUY 58¢ $9 21h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 65¢ $10 22h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 60¢ $2 23h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $15 23h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Aleksandar Vu BUY Harry Wendelken $1 23h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Veronika Er SELL Lanlana Tararudee 82¢ $2 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Veronika Er BUY Lanlana Tararudee 76¢ $2 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray SELL Matteo Arnaldi 98¢ $18 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Matteo Arnaldi 77¢ $14 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovi SELL Ajla Tomljanovic 97¢ $14 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.00 (match) · 300 history records