Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
63 0x63d2…9c82 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$76 (-1%) realized −$78 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate49%20W / 21L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$134
world 15% −$223
other 10% −$2
sports 3% +$5
finance 3% +$6
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-38.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -32.0% -38.5% 14% 14% -19.7%
≤90d 31 -42.1% -47.6% 35% 3% -9.5%
all 41 -31.8% -38.3% 49% 5% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.3% 5% -10.9%
10% -44.2% 2% -19.4%
15% -49.6% 2% -27.2%
20% -54.6% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses20 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage95d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $54 $56 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 -26%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $20 $0 -2%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense not IPO before August 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -36%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be less than $2.75B at m May 30 $3 $0 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $146 +$9 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $136 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $5 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 08 $135 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 08 $49 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? May 08 $95 +$5 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $73 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 29 $84 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 29 $60 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 29 $158 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 07 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 3? Apr 04 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $156 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs FC Famalicão Esports (BO3) - Journey Mar 25 $149 +$5 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $216 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $355 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 23 $570 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 23 $533 +$37 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 23 $501 +$32 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 23 $452 +$50 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 23 $672 −$224 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 23 $668 +$7 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 17d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 17d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 5, 2026? SELL Yes $0 24d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 5, 2026? BUY Yes $0 24d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 5, 2026? BUY Yes $0 24d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 7, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $19 24d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 24d
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense not IPO before August 2026? SELL Yes $0 27d
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be less than $2.75B at m SELL Yes 15¢ $3 27d
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be less than $2.75B at m BUY Yes 16¢ $1 27d
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be less than $2.75B at m BUY Yes 16¢ $2 27d
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense not IPO before August 2026? BUY Yes $0 27d
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense not IPO before August 2026? BUY Yes $0 27d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 42d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $125 42d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 49d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $125 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $135 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $135 49d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 49d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No $2 49d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No $1 49d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No $3 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? BUY Yes $0 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? BUY Yes $0 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? BUY Yes $0 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? BUY Yes $0 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? BUY Yes $0 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.26 · official $56.26 (match) · 117 history records