Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:13:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
63 0x63cf…94dd sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$794 (+8%) realized +$720 · open +$74
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$742
7 days+$652
14 days+$652
30 days+$652
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$1,746
other 20% −$982
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +16.7% +5.6% 31% 31% -3.6%
≤30d 29 +16.7% +5.6% 31% 31% -3.6%
≤90d 29 +16.7% +5.6% 31% 31% -3.6%
all 31 +16.6% +5.5% 35% 35% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.5% 35% -3.4%
10% -4.6% 23% -12.6%
15% -13.8% 16% -21.1%
20% -22.3% 13% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$63 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized+$720
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 35
History coverage245d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Under 70¢ 92¢ $200 $264 +$64 (+32%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+137%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+69%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $503 +$123 +24%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$90 -88%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $302 +$95 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2,308 +$275 +12%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$41 -40%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $35 +$21 +58%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $504 +$199 +40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,805 +$212 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $21 +$116 +565%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $205 −$59 -29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $102 −$7 -6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 −$36 -70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $101 −$52 -52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 −$20 -39%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,642 +$875 +53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $336 −$149 -44%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $27 −$3 -10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $204 −$4 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $638 −$112 -18%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +649%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 −$500 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$49 -48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1) Oct 15 $60 +$10 +17%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 14 $199 +$28 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $202 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 52¢ $48 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $5 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $626 20h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $503 20h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $12 20h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 20h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 74¢ $50 21h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $397 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2,583 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $51 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $2,308 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $60 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $201 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $51 25h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $703 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $2,017 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 26h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $35 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 97¢ $1,301 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.02 · official $288.69 (match) · 77 history records