Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
63 0x63cc…6b0e other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$494 (-77%) realized −$494 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$42
14 days+$41
30 days−$484
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$526
other 16% +$40
sports 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +103.6% +84.3% 100% 100% +23.2%
≤30d 7 +24.6% +12.7% 71% 71% -77.4%
≤90d 7 +24.6% +12.7% 71% 71% -77.4%
all 7 +24.6% +12.7% 71% 71% -77.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.7% 71% -77.4%
10% +1.9% 57% -79.5%
15% -7.9% 14% -81.5%
20% -17.0% 14% -83.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$263 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$494
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage14d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $95 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $1 $0 +28%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $524 −$524 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records