Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:40:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63cb…ee12 world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate36%10W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% +$1
other 17% $0
finance 3% $0
sports 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
politics 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 25% 12% -9.7%
≤30d 20 +1.0% -8.6% 25% 10% -9.4%
≤90d 20 +1.0% -8.6% 25% 10% -9.4%
all 28 -2.5% -11.8% 36% 7% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 7% -10.5%
10% -20.2% 0% -19.0%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.9%
20% -35.0% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses10 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage491d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $34 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $31 +$4 +12%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $35 −$4 -12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $44 +$1 +3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $28 −$1 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +20%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $8 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $74 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Dec 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 23 $10 $0 -1%
Anderlecht vs. Fenerbahce Mar 04 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $14 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $20 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $1 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $19 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $15 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $31 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $31 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $17 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $14 30h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $31 36h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $11 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $24 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $35 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $35 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $16 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $19 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $31 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $39 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $38 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $2 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $25 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $8 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $3 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $14 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $2 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records