Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:30:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
63 0x63cb…061f politics 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 23L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,108per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$8
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$69
other 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 23 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 23 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,663) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage65d
Avg bet$1,108
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,776 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,152 −$39 -3%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,727 −$3 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $1,746 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,722 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $867 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $866 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $1,754 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $871 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $1,663 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $924 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $849 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $850 22h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $850 47h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $851 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $851 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $853 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $852 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $853 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $853 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $854 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $852 14d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $854 15d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $852 16d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $854 18d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $860 18d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $861 20d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $861 21d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $862 22d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $858 23d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $859 25d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $862 25d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $863 26d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $863 28d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $864 28d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $863 29d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $864 30d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $866 32d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $867 32d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $865 33d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $866 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records