Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:02:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
63 0x63cb…51a7 world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$22 (+3%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate48%20W / 22L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$1
other 23% +$17
sports 14% +$14
politics 9% −$9
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 42 +1.9% -7.8% 48% 10% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 10% -7.1%
10% -16.6% 7% -16.0%
15% -24.7% 7% -24.1%
20% -32.0% 5% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.93 per $1 lost it wins $2.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses20 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage485d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 87¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $72 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $73 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $40 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $3 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $4 $0 +3%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 26 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be less than $5.00 in March? Apr 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $33 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $19 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $3 $0 +9%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $23 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian Mar 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $19 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his DOJ appearance on Frid Mar 15 $27 +$1 +6%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14? Mar 14 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Mar 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 12? Mar 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on March 14? Mar 14 $15 −$9 -62%
India wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February? Mar 13 $25 +$13 +54%
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? Mar 11 $24 $0 +1%
Georgia vs. South Carolina Mar 06 $12 +$12 +104%
Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo Mar 04 $12 $0 +0%
Gonzaga vs. Washington State Mar 04 $11 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $25 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $11 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $6 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 12h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 45h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $20 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $20 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $28 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 83¢ $40 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $25 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $36 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $5 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $31 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $37 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $37 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.06 · official $33.06 (match) · 142 history records