Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:11:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
63 0x63c6…a5c9 sports 235 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,918 (+9%) realized +$1,890 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%112W / 120L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$315est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days+$299
14 days+$1,046
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,889
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +32.3% +19.7% 57% 57% +9.8%
≤30d 55 +13.7% +2.9% 51% 49% -11.1%
≤90d 186 +11.4% +0.8% 48% 47% -0.4%
all 232 +11.4% +0.8% 48% 47% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 47% -1.7%
10% -8.8% 46% -11.1%
15% -17.6% 46% -19.7%
20% -25.7% 46% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$92 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized+$1,890
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses112 / 120
Est. fees paid−$315
Open positions3
Markets (closed)232 / 235
History coverage128d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: DNT (-1.5) vs Entropy (+1.5) Donstu Esports 49¢ 57¢ $150 $176 +$26 (+17%)
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group B ex-Sashi Academy 27¢ 34¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+28%)
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs Endless Journey (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group C Fortress 31¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: ENJOY (-1.5) vs Julie&cie (+1.5) Jun 25 $148 +$76 +52%
Map Handicap: OBSB (-1.5) vs Subtop De France (+1.5) Jun 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 23 $17 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $101 +$124 +122%
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 21 $149 −$149 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 20 $101 +$164 +163%
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs xept (+1.5) Jun 20 $100 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $151 +$104 +69%
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $46 +$104 +226%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $48 +$52 +108%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi Jun 19 $150 +$150 +100%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) Jun 19 $90 −$88 -98%
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Spirit Academy (+1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$15 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $55 +$45 +83%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $100 +$122 +122%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $243 −$243 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $150 +$150 +100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $101 −$100 -98%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $149 +$111 +74%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 15 $153 +$315 +206%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $101 +$156 +154%
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 15 $119 +$169 +142%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $150 +$176 +117%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $147 +$128 +87%
Map Handicap: OXUJI (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$3 +165%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Jun 11 $152 −$149 -98%
Map Handicap: NEW VISION (-1.5) vs XI Esport (+1.5) Jun 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $151 +$134 +89%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 07 $96 +$204 +212%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs AM Gaming (+1.5) Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Map Handicap: Leo (-1.5) vs NEW VISION (+1.5) Jun 06 $100 +$132 +133%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group St Jun 06 $157 −$154 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs ENRAGE (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 05 $1 +$1 +203%
Counter-Strike: Banger Gang vs ZOTIX (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play Jun 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Map Handicap: Lavked (-1.5) vs MANA eSports (+1.5) Jun 05 $151 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Close Jun 04 $150 −$150 -100%
Map Handicap: ENCE (-1.5) vs Entropy (+1.5) Jun 04 $150 −$150 -100%
Map Handicap: TLR (-1.5) vs Entropy (+1.5) Jun 03 $5 +$8 +150%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Project 91 vs Entropy (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 01 $100 +$105 +104%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Atreides (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Jun 01 $27 +$25 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: DNT (-1.5) vs Entropy (+1.5) BUY Donstu Esports 49¢ $94 1m
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs Endless Journey (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Fortress 31¢ $1 17m
Map Handicap: DNT (-1.5) vs Entropy (+1.5) BUY Donstu Esports 49¢ $37 55m
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY ex-Sashi Academy 27¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY ex-Sashi Academy 27¢ $1 4h
Map Handicap: DNT (-1.5) vs Entropy (+1.5) BUY Donstu Esports 49¢ $20 10h
Map Handicap: OBSB (-1.5) vs Subtop De France (+1.5) BUY OlyBet SB 50¢ $21 15h
Map Handicap: ENJOY (-1.5) vs Julie&cie (+1.5) BUY ENJOY 66¢ $148 18h
Map Handicap: OBSB (-1.5) vs Subtop De France (+1.5) BUY OlyBet SB 50¢ $91 22h
Map Handicap: OBSB (-1.5) vs Subtop De France (+1.5) BUY OlyBet SB 50¢ $38 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 50¢ $2 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 50¢ $13 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 50¢ $14 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 50¢ $2 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 50¢ $5 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 50¢ $4 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 50¢ $5 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 50¢ $5 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 50¢ $1 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 50¢ $5 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 50¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ENERGYULTRA 45¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ENERGYULTRA 45¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ENERGYULTRA 45¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ENERGYULTRA 45¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ENERGYULTRA 45¢ $11 4d
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ENERGYULTRA 45¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ENERGYULTRA 45¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ENERGYULTRA 45¢ $58 4d
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) BUY INOX Division 40¢ $69 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.31 · official $186.32 (match) · 930 history records