Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
63 0x63c4…4e73 sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$50 (+3%) realized +$59 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$13
sports 49% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +19.6% +8.2% 57% 57% -7.0%
≤30d 21 +19.6% +8.2% 57% 57% -7.0%
≤90d 21 +19.6% +8.2% 57% 57% -7.0%
all 21 +19.6% +8.2% 57% 57% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 57% -7.0%
10% -2.1% 57% -15.9%
15% -11.6% 57% -24.0%
20% -20.2% 52% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$77 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage5d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 42¢ 42¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Norway 30¢ 18¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $45 +$30 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $26 +$20 +76%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$13 +126%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$31 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $46 −$45 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $56 +$82 +146%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $56 +$54 +97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 +$34 +276%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $80 −$79 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $54 +$59 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $255 −$252 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $76 −$75 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $267 +$292 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $74 −$72 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $75 +$52 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $81 +$33 +41%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $75 −$74 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 30¢ $20 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $21 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $44 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $26 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $45 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 28h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $46 31h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $56 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $56 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $80 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $54 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $134 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $76 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $76 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $45 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 34¢ $71 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $74 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $191 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $76 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $75 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $81 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $75 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.14 · official $78.81 · 39 history records