Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:41:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63c4…f595 other 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-5%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate22%27W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$24
14 days−$62
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -47.6% -52.6% 10% 10% -52.2%
≤30d 77 -16.1% -24.1% 25% 19% -12.6%
≤90d 125 -15.7% -23.7% 22% 16% -16.5%
all 125 -15.7% -23.7% 22% 16% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 16% -16.5%
10% -31.0% 14% -24.5%
15% -37.7% 13% -31.8%
20% -43.8% 10% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses27 / 98
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 125
History coverage76d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $4 −$1 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $14 −$3 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $14 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $2 +$7 +357%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $22 −$5 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$3 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 03 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$7 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $10 −$2 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $20 −$5 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $19 −$6 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $9 −$2 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $30 +$27 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $22 +$3 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 30h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 31h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 36h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 37h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 37h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 37h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 38h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 38h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 38h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 40h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 40h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 741 history records