Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:35:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63c4…0e36 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$7
politics 14% $0
other 11% +$2
culture 6% $0
crypto 3% +$1
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 11 -0.9% -10.4% 45% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 11 -0.9% -10.4% 45% 0% -10.4%
all 38 +0.7% -8.9% 34% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 5% -10.1%
10% -17.6% 5% -18.7%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage258d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $53 +$1 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $59 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $149 +$9 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $55 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $119 −$2 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $73 −$14 -19%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $21 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Dec 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 23 $1 $0 -12%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Oct 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 22 $2 $0 -8%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 21 $2 $0 +5%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 20 $3 $0 -13%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 20 $2 +$1 +29%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 19 $2 $0 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October? Oct 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 18 $25 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 11 $2 +$1 +33%
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awar Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $26 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $46 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $17 7h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $37 7h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $53 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $42 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $6 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $36 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $12 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $22 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $38 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $46 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $14 23h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $7 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $43 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $9 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $59 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $34 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $10 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 71¢ $41 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $21 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $30 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $8 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 59¢ $55 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.77 · official $47.77 (match) · 296 history records