Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
63 0x63c2…b44b other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$124 (+5%) realized +$83 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$1,940now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$250
sports 4% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -37.1% -43.1% 40% 40% +4.8%
≤30d 5 -37.1% -43.1% 40% 40% +4.8%
≤90d 5 -37.1% -43.1% 40% 40% +4.8%
all 5 -37.1% -43.1% 40% 40% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.1% 40% +4.8%
10% -48.6% 40% -5.2%
15% -53.5% 40% -14.4%
20% -58.1% 40% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$55 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$1,940
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage15d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $1,647 $1,680 +$33 (+2%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals No 42¢ 40¢ $125 $121 −$4 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $80 $101 +$21 (+27%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $37 $24 −$13 (-36%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $505 +$264 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $47 −$46 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 +$11 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 42¢ $117 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 42¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $436 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $103 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $321 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 38¢ $37 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 38¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $82 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $18 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 15d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,940.12 · official $1,940.12 (match) · 37 history records