Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x63c1…70d7 world 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$454 (+3%) realized +$342 · open +$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate87%39W / 6L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$6,780now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$153
7 days+$223
14 days+$223
30 days+$361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$352
other 20% −$41
politics 8% +$204
finance 5% +$64
sports 4% +$4
tech 4% +$42
crypto 2% −$2
economics 1% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 38% +2.7%
≤30d 22 +1.7% -8.0% 82% 23% -2.2%
≤90d 41 +1.3% -8.3% 85% 32% -4.5%
all 45 +2.5% -7.2% 87% 38% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 38% -3.7%
10% -16.1% 7% -12.9%
15% -24.2% 7% -21.3%
20% -31.7% 7% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$131 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$6,780
Realized+$342
Unrealized+$112
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses39 / 6
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions27
Markets (closed)45 / 72
History coverage103d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? No 86¢ 88¢ $900 $926 +$26 (+3%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 48¢ $462 $407 −$55 (-12%)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No 88¢ 87¢ $400 $396 −$4 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 85¢ 100¢ $300 $351 +$51 (+17%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 86¢ $300 $337 +$37 (+12%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 92¢ $300 $326 +$26 (+9%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $300 $317 +$17 (+6%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 76¢ 95¢ $250 $314 +$64 (+26%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $300 $311 +$11 (+4%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31? No 77¢ 74¢ $300 $287 −$13 (-4%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 96¢ $200 $229 +$29 (+15%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 90¢ 97¢ $200 $216 +$16 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 98¢ 98¢ $216 $216 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+2%)
Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? No 86¢ 82¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-4%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $150 $158 +$8 (+5%)
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $150 $157 +$7 (+5%)
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? No 91¢ 88¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-2%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $140 $142 +$2 (+2%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 89¢ 55¢ $200 $123 −$77 (-38%)
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 93¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $450 +$531 +118%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 19 $201 +$21 +11%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Jun 17 $100 +$132 +132%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $301 +$22 +7%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 14 $151 −$33 -22%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Jun 04 $200 +$14 +7%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? Jun 04 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May? Jun 04 $100 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $100 +$6 +6%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in May 2026? Jun 01 $300 +$14 +4%
Evo Morales arrested by May 31? Jun 01 $120 +$8 +7%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $200 +$5 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $201 +$20 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $604 +$4 +1%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M May 28 $201 +$13 +6%
Will ELAM win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 25 $200 +$4 +2%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $101 +$21 +21%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $201 +$23 +11%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $301 +$12 +4%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $201 +$23 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 30, 20 May 11 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026? May 11 $150 +$128 +85%
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026? May 11 $300 +$33 +11%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 03 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? May 03 $200 +$27 +13%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting May 03 $200 +$27 +14%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $200 −$200 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 16 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Iran strike Yemen by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $100 +$3 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate Apr 08 $250 +$17 +7%
Will Iran strike Pakistan in March? Apr 06 $200 +$7 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $200 +$15 +8%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting? Mar 20 $452 +$69 +15%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeti Mar 19 $130 +$25 +20%
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15? Mar 16 $101 +$13 +13%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 9? Mar 09 $90 +$10 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun BUY No 95¢ $100 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $981 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $100 26h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $100 35h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $100 40h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $150 2d
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31? BUY No 77¢ $300 3d
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? BUY No 88¢ $400 3d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 68¢ $118 5d
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? BUY No 86¢ $300 8d
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 78¢ $200 8d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $140 8d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $152 15d
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $150 15d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY Yes 30¢ $51 15d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 16d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $217 17d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $200 17d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 85¢ $151 18d
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $100 18d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $300 18d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $101 18d
Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY No 44¢ $103 18d
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $100 19d
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? BUY No 86¢ $200 20d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 90¢ $201 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic SELL Joao Fonseca 89¢ $537 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 66¢ $404 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 34¢ $72 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,780.13 · official $6,780.13 (match) · 202 history records