Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:52:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63c0…780e sports 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,074 (-8%) realized −$6,801 · open −$273
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate75%48W / 16L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,264per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$616est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,104
7 days−$3,035
14 days−$4,195
30 days−$7,091
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$5,348
other 13% −$1,999
crypto 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -9.9% -18.5% 67% 42% -20.6%
≤30d 64 -0.1% -9.6% 75% 56% -14.7%
≤90d 64 -0.1% -9.6% 75% 56% -14.7%
all 64 -0.1% -9.6% 75% 56% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 56% -14.7%
10% -18.3% 33% -22.9%
15% -26.2% 12% -30.3%
20% -33.4% 6% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$2,047) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$1,065 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$2,262
Realized−$6,801
Unrealized−$273
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses48 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$616
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage26d
Avg bet$1,264
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 94¢ $2,254 $2,243 −$12 (-1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $281 $20 −$261 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,274 +$270 +12%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2,118 +$157 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,724 +$392 +23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2,092 −$366 -18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,340 −$2,316 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,586 −$242 -9%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $2,311 +$275 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,186 +$126 +6%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $2,118 −$2,118 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2,018 +$168 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,716 +$301 +18%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,399 +$317 +23%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $1,283 −$1,265 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $1,522 −$1,500 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $746 +$4 +0%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $2,185 +$617 +28%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $508 +$182 +36%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 06 $909 +$588 +65%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $476 +$24 +5%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 03 $350 +$125 +36%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $286 +$65 +23%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $4,231 −$3,139 -74%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $1,278 −$1,262 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $978 +$280 +29%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 02 $750 +$249 +33%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $2,909 +$574 +20%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $6,207 −$1,600 -26%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $1,637 +$320 +20%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $3,964 +$210 +5%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $2,696 +$1,280 +48%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $2,227 +$468 +21%
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels - Map 2 Winner May 31 $786 −$783 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner May 30 $2,168 +$683 +32%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 30 $2,047 +$268 +13%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $1,827 +$232 +13%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $1,632 +$194 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $1,491 +$141 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $1,230 +$260 +21%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $930 +$300 +32%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $830 +$99 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $2,010 −$684 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 26 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 26 $126 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 26 $30 +$3 +10%
Valorant: TYLOO vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 26 $890 +$100 +11%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch May 26 $1,198 −$1,179 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $452 −$440 -97%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 25 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner May 25 $383 +$117 +30%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 25 $402 +$92 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $2,258 6m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 26m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $135 26m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $145 30m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,544 35m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $2,274 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,275 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $2,118 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,724 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 79¢ $1,726 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $2,092 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,340 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 84¢ $2,344 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,586 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $2,586 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 89¢ $2,311 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,312 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,186 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,186 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $2,018 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 97¢ $2,017 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,716 3d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) SELL Gen.G 100¢ $1,716 3d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 81¢ $1,399 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 50¢ $47 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 50¢ $2,071 5d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY FlyQuest 52¢ $1,283 10d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 50¢ $1,522 10d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 49¢ $746 10d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $1,704 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,262.32 · official $2,262.32 (match) · 210 history records