Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x63bd…aff2
weather · 1107 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,075 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,054 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$548
Realized−$1,054
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses459 / 524
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions198
Markets (closed)983 / 1107
History coverage36d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day72.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 198 History 983 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$373
7 days+$31
14 days+$367
30 days+$325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $114 $125 +$11 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 34¢ 42¢ $74 $94 +$19 (+26%)
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Yes 88¢ 94¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+15%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 54¢ 57¢ $11 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Yes 28¢ 96¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+243%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 86¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 88¢ 95¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+7%)
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? No 37¢ 38¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in June? Yes 7¢ 22¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+207%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Yes 4¢ 50¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+1137%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less than $100? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $1 $5 +$3 (+267%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 72¢ 44¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-39%)
Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Yes 6¢ 44¢ $1 $4 +$4 (+684%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 29¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on May 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on May 14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on May 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C or below on May 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on May 12? Jun 12 $4 −$6 -144%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 48°C on May 15? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on May 16? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 10? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or higher on May 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Joo Ho-young win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 18? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 6? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 11? Jun 12 $1 −$2 -284%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 50°C on May 15? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 11? Jun 12 $2 −$3 -115%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on May 15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on May 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on May 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on May 8? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 6? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 6? Jun 12 $3 +$6 +234%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 48-49°F on Ma Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on May 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -112%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C or below on May 2? Jun 12 $0 +$3 +966%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on May 6? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 6? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 15? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 6? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 16°C on May 15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on May 22? Jun 12 $2 −$3 -174%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on May 15? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 6? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 10? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 73% −$1,231
other 15% +$413
crypto 6% +$184
world 3% +$9
politics 2% +$26
tech 0% −$6
sports 0% −$4
finance 0% +$3
culture 0% −$4
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 11m
Abde Ezzalzouli: 1+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 15¢ $2 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $17 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 19¢ $2 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 4h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Will Neymar win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 5¢ $1 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY No 2¢ $1 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 5h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 277 -48.9% -53.8% 14% 9% -7.5%
≤30d 768 -8.3% -17.1% 50% 11% -6.6%
≤90d 983 -9.0% -17.6% 47% 10% -16.2%
all 983 -9.0% -17.6% 47% 10% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover72.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 10% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 9% -24.2%
15% -32.7% 8% -31.5%
20% -39.3% 7% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $547.68 · official $547.77 (match) · 3500 history records