Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x63bc…5a93 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$432 (+17%) realized +$394 · open +$38
Gross ROI / mkt +87% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +69% what you keep after slip
Net edge+69%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$1,539now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$741
politics 36% −$172
sports 10% −$32
culture 3% −$68
economics 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+69.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 9 -54.6% -58.9% 22% 22% -17.2%
all 13 +86.8% +69.0% 38% 38% +37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +69.0% 38% +37.2%
10% +52.8% 38% +24.1%
15% +38.1% 38% +12.1%
20% +24.5% 38% +1.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +87% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +305% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$50 · ×3.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$1,539
Realized+$394
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage245d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $529 $751 +$221 (+42%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 23¢ $276 $574 +$298 (+108%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $202 $199 −$4 (-2%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 11¢ $463 $15 −$448 (-97%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $31 $1 −$30 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $12 −$12 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Apr 23 $80 −$80 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Apr 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? Apr 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix Apr 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Apr 23 $35 −$35 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Apr 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin Apr 23 $151 +$89 +59%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 14 $103 +$155 +150%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 07 $108 −$108 -100%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Jan 05 $95 +$405 +426%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Nov 02 $19 +$45 +240%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 27 $10 +$105 +1053%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $208 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $543 4d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 61d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 61d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 61d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 61d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 61d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $100 67d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $75 73d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 18¢ $180 73d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 18¢ $108 73d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 19¢ $142 75d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 75d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 19¢ $142 75d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 10¢ $2 75d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 10¢ $1 75d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 10¢ $256 75d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $50 76d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $25 76d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $28 76d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 23¢ $115 76d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 21¢ $42 77d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 18¢ $54 78d
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin BUY Yes 63¢ $151 82d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 17¢ $85 84d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $56 90d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $220 90d
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $20 113d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $0 113d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $4 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,539.31 · official $1,539.31 (match) · 146 history records