Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
63 0x63bc…22e9 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$497 (-31%) realized −$478 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days−$478
14 days−$525
30 days−$525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% −$561
other 13% −$30
sports 1% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +48.6% +34.4% 57% 57% -65.4%
≤30d 8 +41.6% +28.2% 50% 50% -41.7%
≤90d 8 +41.6% +28.2% 50% 50% -41.7%
all 8 +41.6% +28.2% 50% 50% -41.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.2% 50% -41.7%
10% +15.9% 50% -47.3%
15% +4.7% 50% -52.4%
20% -5.6% 50% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$153 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$478
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage7d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$22 +213%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +89%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$25 +249%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $652 −$513 -79%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $702 −$48 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 26h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 26h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 8¢ $139 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 34¢ $652 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 66¢ $654 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 69¢ $702 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.11 · official $91.11 (match) · 22 history records