Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63bb…54fb sports 16 markets active 6d ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$432 (-50%) realized −$432 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$381
other 12% +$51
finance 11% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-51.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.1% -13.3% 60% 60% -13.0%
≤30d 5 -4.1% -13.3% 60% 60% -13.0%
≤90d 6 -20.1% -27.7% 50% 50% -32.7%
all 16 -46.4% -51.5% 31% 25% -55.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.5% 25% -55.3%
10% -56.1% 25% -59.6%
15% -60.4% 25% -63.5%
20% -64.3% 19% -67.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -74% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$48 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$432
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage175d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $31 −$20 -64%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 14 $101 +$51 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $91 −$90 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $110 +$40 +36%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23? Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO5) Dec 27 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Dec 27 $4 +$3 +70%
LoL: LNG Esports vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner Dec 23 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Dec 23 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) Dec 23 $86 −$74 -86%
LoL: LNG Esports vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) Dec 23 $55 −$35 -64%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner Dec 22 $35 −$2 -6%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Dec 22 $40 +$1 +1%
LoL: Oh My God vs JD Gaming (BO3) Dec 21 $110 −$110 -100%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) Dec 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Eintracht Spandau $11 5d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Eintracht Spandau 19¢ $31 5d
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? SELL Yes 100¢ $152 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 34¢ $20 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 62¢ $20 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 63¢ $10 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $50 6d
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $150 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 74¢ $29 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 57¢ $30 7d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 86¢ $50 7d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23? BUY Down 73¢ $100 89d
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO5) BUY EDward Gaming 42¢ $7 175d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 59¢ $4 177d
LoL: LNG Esports vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming 60¢ $20 179d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $12 179d
LoL: LNG Esports vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) BUY Weibo Gaming 66¢ $35 179d
LoL: LNG Esports vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) SELL LNG Esports 34¢ $15 179d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) BUY LNG Esports 23¢ $33 180d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $33 180d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) BUY LNG Esports 21¢ $43 180d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 76¢ $41 180d
LoL: LNG Esports vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) BUY LNG Esports 44¢ $20 180d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $35 180d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $40 180d
LoL: Oh My God vs JD Gaming (BO3) BUY Oh My God 43¢ $80 180d
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) BUY LGD Gaming 53¢ $50 180d
LoL: Oh My God vs JD Gaming (BO3) BUY Oh My God 38¢ $20 180d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) BUY Bilibili Gaming 84¢ $10 180d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records